Research firm IDC has published an overview of its predictions for 2010, one of what the company promises will be the first of dozens of similar documents over the next few weeks.
The first top ten predictions deal with generally macroscopic predictions; for example, the first is a belief that that the IT industry will return to growth, increasing 3.2 percent to worldwide spending levels of about $1.5 trillion. (Marketing budgets, the foundation of Internet advertising, are expected to increase by 3 percent after falling 8 percent in 2009.)
The fifth prediction, however, should attract the most attention from consumers. In it, IDC predicts that (surprise, surprise) mobile devices are becoming more important. IDC takes the extra step, however, and claims that they're becoming platforms in their own right, and will eclipse PCs in their connections to the Internet. In total, over 1 billion phones will ship in 2010, IDC predicts, and about 16 percent of those will be smartphones.
IDC then goes on to call an Apple tablet a "no brainer":
"This year, however, we predict that Apple will finally introduce this new device family, which is more of an oversized (8in., 10in.) iPod Touch than a downsized Mac -- and if you look at the developer energy around the iPhone/Touch platform, this should be no surprise at all," IDC claimed. "This prediction is a no-brainer: there's enormous appeal in sizing up the iPhone/Touch for a variety of applications and activities that people already use those devices for but would jump at the chance to have a larger screen -- watching videos/movies, reading books/magazines/newspapers (it would take a big bite from the Kindle), surfing the Web, videophone, and online gaming. Look for Apple's "iPad" by year-end 2010. Oh, and don't be surprised to see Microsoft also announce its own device in this space."
IDC also predicts that there will be over 300,000 apps for the iPhone platform, and 50,000 to 75,000 apps for the Google Android OS, possibly fractured by the varying form factors of Android devices.
Unfortunately, IDC also trumpets the return to "good, better, best" pricing on netbooks, meaning an overall rise in ASPs. Over 40 million netbooks should ship, up from 30 million in 2009, according to the firm.
IDC also skewers 4G hype, claiming that only 125,000 phones will be 4G capable in 2010. 3G radios will continues to improve (HSPA+) while more and more devices will include 3G technology as "invisible" connectivity, a la the Amazon Kindle. The firm also predicted that so-called "over-the-top" VOIP services like Google Voice will be more heavily regulated by the FCC.
IDC also placed some bets on mergers and acquisitions: IBM buying Juniper Networks was one, and the firm also predicted Canon would buy its way further into the printing services business. But Cisco and EMC will not merge, IDC's crystal ball said.
Other predictions included a dramatic expansion of cloud-based services, IT growth driven by emerging markets, and a 15 percent U.S. penetration of smart meters and a 25 percent penetration of electronic health records.
